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Climate change is one of the most significant threats facing the world today. Climate Changerepresents a major challenge for social-economic development. People and society are vulnerable to climate change through impacts on ecosystems, water resources, agriculture,energy production among many others. While end of century average global temperatures are expected to increase by 1.5 to 5°C, the distribution of the temperature changes will vary tremendously depending on the geographic location and time of year. In addition, changes to extremes in both temperature and precipitation are likely to be of considerably greater importance than gradual mean changes. Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) are considered the most advanced tools to make climate change projections. However, their course resolution does not adequately resolve the fine-scale topography and weather systems necessary for impacts assessments at local and regional scales. Regional Climate modeling is a widely accepted tool that can be used to greatly enhance the AOGCM information to resolutions sufficient for impacts studies and hence local policy-makers.
The present project aims provide a reliable set of very high resolution (12km) regional climate model climate change projections over Georgia for the periods 2081-2100 under a Paris COP21 mitigation atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario and a business-as-usual GHG scenario. Given the complex topography of Georgia and relatively very few climate modeling studies at high spatial resolution, the expected outcomes of the project are very important for the country from both societal and scientific points of view. In the present study, output from the latest IPCC AOGCMs will be dynamically downscaled using the latest version of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP, Trieste, Italy) Regional Climate Model (RegCM4).
To define the best combination of physical parameterizations for the Georgian region the sensitivity experiments will be conducted. Changes in the seasonal and annual climatology and climate extremes between the historical and future periods will be analyzed for both the mitigation and business-as-usual scenarios.
RegCM was originally developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, USA) and is currently maintained at the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, Italy. RegCM is a family of limited area models, in which the large-scale meteorological fields from AOGCM simulations provide initial and time-dependent meteorological lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for high resolution RegCM simulations. RegCM has been successfully applied to studies of regional climate and seasonal predictability around the world.
Magda Tsintsadze (TSU, Assocoate Professor) , Tsezari Mshvenieradze (TSU) , ...
Project Scientific Advisers:
Within the framework of the project, a reliable set of very high-resolution (12 km) regional climate model climate change predictions for Georgia for the period 2081-2100 and 1986-2005 was created, for which the atmosphere-ocean global climate models and regional climate model RegCM4.7.1 of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP, Trieste, Italy) were used. The obtained forecasts created for the territory of Georgia to date are of the highest resolution. For the reliability of the model, experiments were conducted in advance. Due to the complex topography of Georgia and the significant lack of high-resolution climate model studies, the results of the study are important for the country from both a public and scientific point of view, since it will 1) provide the highest resolution climate information for Georgia to date, using the latest climate change forecasts, 2) strengthens the field of climate change not only in Georgia, but internationally, and 3) provide quality information and assessments of climate change impact levels. The results of the project implementation are important for the fields such as economy, agriculture, health care, and tourism. Combining climate data with geological and hydrological information provides a more complete understanding of multiple risks in Georgia's complex geographic conditions. Future work needs to be expanded to include assessments of climate-induced hazards such as landslides, mudflows, and floods. Within the framework of the project, successful cooperation was formed and strengthened between Georgian researchers and foreign consultants of the project, which will promote long-term collaboration and partnership in further research and educational activities; the implementation of the project strengthened the prospects of inter-institutional and international cooperation with the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Italy, Institute of Geophysics of TSU, the Institute of Hydrometeorology of GTU, and Caucasus University. In total, three scientific articles on the results of the project were prepared and published; the website of the project was created, and educational/supporting materials on regional climate modeling were prepared for TSU master's students in the Georgian language. The project results were presented at 8 international conferences in Georgia and abroad.
Mariam Elizbarashvili, Elizbar Elizbarashvili, Tímea Kalmár, Tamar Khuntselia and Nino Chikhradze, “ASSESSING REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL REGCM4.7.1: INSIGHTS FROM SIMULATIONS IN GEORGIA”, International Journal of GEOMATE, Sep., 2024 Vol.27, Issue 121, pp.41-55,
Mariam Elizbarashvili, Avtandil Amiranashvili, Elizbar Elizbarashvili, George Mikuchadze, Tamar Khuntselia, Nino Chikhradze, „Comparison of RegCM4.7.1 Simulation with the Station Observation Data of Georgia, 1985-2008“, Atmosphere, 2024, 15, 369.
Mariam Elizbarashvili, Zurab Seperteladze, George Mikuchadze, The Performance of RegCM4.7.1 over Georgia’s Territory Using Two Different Configurations, International Conference “Geography – Past, Present, Future Challenges”. Georgian Geographical Journal #3 (2), 2023. p.10.
2nd International Conference on Environmental Science and Applications (ICESA’21), 2021, 21- 23 November, Mariam Elizbarashvili, Magda Tsintsadze, Tsezari Mshvenieradze, Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Climatology for Georgia using RegCM4.
EGU General Assembly 2022, Austria, Viena, 2022, 22-27 May, Mariam Elizbarashvili, Tímea Kalmár,Magda Tsintsadze,and Tsezari Mshvenieradze, Regional climate modeling for Georgia with RegCM4.7
XII International Conference of the Georgian Mathematical Union, Batumi, Georgia, 2022, 29 August - 3 September, Mariam Elizbarashvili, Regional Climate Modeling: Challenges and Prospects in Georgia
II International Scientific Conference: “Landscape Dimensions of Sustainable Development: Science-Carto/GIS-Planning-Governance, Tbilisi, Georgia, Georgia, 2022, 12 - 16 September, Mariam Elizbarashvili, Magda Tsintsadze, Tsezari Mshvenieradze, Elizbar Elizbarashvili, ASSESSMENT OF REGCM4 SIMULATED ANNUAL AND SEASONAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER GEORGIA.
EGU General Assembly 2023, Austria, Viena, 2023, 23-28 April, Mariam Elizbarashvili, George Mikuchadze,Tímea Kalmár,and Jeremy Pal, Comparison of Regional Climate Model Simulations to Observational Data for Georgia.
International Conference “Geography – Past, Present, Future Challenges. Tbilisi, Georgia, 2023, 1-3 November, Mariam Elizbarashvili, George Mikuchadze, The Performance of RegCM4.7.1 over Georgia’s Territory Using Two Different Configurations.
AGU Fall Meeting 2021, New Orleans, USA, 2021, 13-17 December, Mariam Elizbarashvili, Magda Tsintsadze, Tsezari Mshvenieradze, High-resolution Climate Simulation Using Double- nesting Method for Georgia.
AInternational Scientific Conference "Geophysical Processes in the Earth and its Envelopes", Tbilisi, Georgia, 2023, 16-17 November, Mariam Elizbarashvili, George Mikuchadze, Nino Chikhradze, Regional Climate Model Simulation of Georgia Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature during 2009–2014.